Yearly summery of published works 2019
Jonas Grafström
The Ratio Institute and Luleå
University of Technology
SE-113 59 Stockholm
Sweden
E-mail: jonas.grafstrom@ratio.se
Abstract
In this paper I synthesis
my published works 2019 and comments about them and what direction the research
will take in 2020. Articles in academic journals, working papers, book chapters
and other reports will be mentioned. I will present the abstract and some
comments about the work.A conclusion and a direction of further research will
also be presented.
Keywords: CCS, solar power,
technological change, research.
JEL classification: E61, O32,
Q2, Q58.
1. Published works
English
publications:
Abstract: An anecdote about the failure
of the Soviet economic system tells about a factory which were evaluated based
on tons of nails produced–unsurprisingly the nails became heavy. China is
currently hailed as the worlds primer wind power producer; however, a closer
examination reveals a string of policy failure making the Chinese wind power
development resemble the infamous Soviet nail example. From a technological
transition perspective, policy failures in China's wind power program from
1980-2016 is documented and analysed. Five overarching topics are analysed
including: Conflicting policies, quality problems, underwhelming technological
development, lacking technological standards and insufficient grid transmission
system. One conclusion is that when the Chinese government set a command and
control target of how much new installed capacity that was going to be constructed
the state utilities delivered to target but with an abundance of power plants
without grid connectivity, severe quality problems and low technological
development.
Comment: This paper was first presented in Kentucky and was the
first steps towards looking into the economic theoretical side of why the Chinese
wind power was underperforming. I had previously just looked at what the literature
said about it. This paper is now being transformed into a paper that is on its
second revise and resubmit round. It was a rather unexpected way to take it and
it have taken me into the field of Austrian Economics.
Abstract: China has in recent decades
expanded its wind power generation capacity and become the world leader. Still,
despite robust government support, wind power in China is obstructed by various
barriers (e.g. quality deficiencies, inability to export, missing grid
connections, and permit delays from central government for grid construction
etc.). This paper synthesises the literature that has discovered weaknesses in
the Chinese wind power development and suggests improvements. One energy policy
relevant observation is that when the Chinese government sets command-and-control
construction targets over new installed capacity, actors delivered to target –
but with several power plants without grid connectivity and severe quality
problems. The article contributes to the academic debate over the role of
policy making in renewable energy development and argues that China should
improve their incentive structure and coordination of regulations.
Comment: Here the more technical energy economics of the changes in
the Chinese wind power sector is presented. It later grew into a larger
project.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is
to provide an updated analysis of international knowledge spillovers in the
solar energy sector. Specifically, the paper investigates how the accumulation
of solar energy patents and public R&D spending affected the output of
domestic granted solar energy patents. The econometric analysis relies on a
data set consisting of most of the OECD countries plus China and analyzes two
time periods; from 1990 to 2014 and the years 2000 to 2014. To analyze the data
material, a Poisson fixed-effects estimator based on the Hausman, Hall and
Griliches (1984) method was used. The empirical findings suggest that the domestic
accumulation of patents and R&D is important for the potential development
of new ones. Indeed, early investment in specific technology can be an
indicator of future leadership in that field. It also seems to be the case that
long run investment works better for a country that wants to be a part of the
development of a particular technology.
Comment: This paper was a way for me to get into a new renewable energy
field. Solar energy is a bit less researched than wind power, but of course
there are thousands of papers. I basically revisit the methods I used in
Grafström (2017) and Grafström and Lindman (2017). Both those paper was
interesting.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is
to provide a global overview of job effects per MW of wind power installations,
which will enable improved decision-making and modeling of future wind-power
projects. We found indications that job creation connected to wind-power
installations is rather limited. In total, 17 peer-reviewed articles and 10 reports/non-peer-reviewed
papers between 2001 and 2019 were assessed. Our three major policy conclusions
are as follows:(a) job creation seems to be limited;(b) each new project should
consider a unique assessment, since all projects have been undertaken within
different institutional frameworks, labor markets, and during separate years,
meaning that the technology is not comparable; and (c) the number of jobs
depends on the labor intensity of the country. View Full-Text
Comment: In collaboration with some Italian friends and my research
assistant we created this rather unique paper that I hope will have some impact
when it come to evaluating wind power projects. I have been rather unimpressed
with consultants that promise huge work creation if cities build wind power. Wind
power is of course good in general but as I job creator, I would not hold my
breath.
Swedish publications:
Abstract: Sammanfattning i punktform:•Om DAC med
dagenskostnad skulle användas för uppfångning av koldioxid motsvarande världens
årliga utsläpp, skulle det årligen kosta en summa motsvarande en fjärdedel av
världsekonomin.•Av de fåtal företag som bedriver direktuppfångning av
atmosfärisk koldioxid (DAC) har bara ett av dessa offentliggjort sina
kostnader. Företaget redovisar idag en kostnad som uppgår till 5600 SEKper
insamlat ton.•Det finns dock stor potential för minskade kostnader över
tid.•Osäkerheten i denna potential är mycketstor eftersom innovation, lärkurvor
och energipriser generellt är svåra att uppskatta på längre sikt.•Efter en
bästa gissning baserat på liknande kostnadsminskningar som för ex. solceller
och vindkraft uppskattar vi kostnaderna för DAC att sjunka till ca. 750
SEK/tCO2 år 2050, eller någonstans mellan 168–2092 SEK.•Med utvecklingstakten
ovan blir DAC samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt omkring år 2045.•För att nå denna
potential krävs kraftiga investeringar i stöttande infrastruktur för snabb
uppskalning och ekonomiska incitament för infångande (och senare lagring) av
koldioxid.•Koldioxidskatter och andra typer av policyåtgärderpåverkar när DAC:s
blir lönsam.
Comment: Really important paper that extend a previous paper I done
with my college martin Korpi (2018). What will CCS cost is our question and we
do find hope for the future.
Teknikutvecklingen och arbetsmarknaden (kapitel bok, Dialogos förlag)
Abstract: Vanliga tider liknar varandra, men ovanliga tider är annorlunda på sitt
eget sätt–teknikutvecklingen som pågår bär tecken som tyder på att vi är på väg
in i en ovanlig tid. Det ovanliga i denna tid är den sammanlagda snabbheten av
teknologiska förändringar. Historiskt har teknikutveckling förändrat
arbetsmarknader men det har funnits gott om tid för omställning. I detta
kapitel diskuteras teknikförändringarnas utmaningar och huruvida det sker en
polarisering på arbetsmarknaden. Kapitlet avslutas med några tankar kring hur
en person på arbetsmarknaden kan rusta sig för en framtida, potentiellt
ovanlig, tid.
Comment: A book chapter im proud of and is a preclude to things to
come in the labor market area.
2. Concluding Remarks and Directions for Future Research
I have made some interesting
contributions but would say that work vise a lot more is coming out in 2020.
The pipeline is so that a lot of big projects are nearing completion and 2020
will probably be the best year to come.
References
Grafström, J. (2019). Public policy failures related to China´ s Wind
Power Development. In Public Choice Society yearly meeting. Kentucky..
Grafström, J., Goñi, M. L., & Korpi, M.
Koldioxidinfångning direkt ur luften, dyrt idag–billigt i framtiden?.
Grafström, J. (2019). Teknikutvecklingen och arbetsmarknaden.
Grafstrom, J.
(2018). An Anatomy of Mishaps–China's Wind Power Development. USAEE Research Paper, (18-375).
Grafström, J.
(2019). Ratio Working Paper No. 317: China’s Wind Power Development–An Anatomy
of Mishaps (No. 317). The Ratio
Institute.
Grafstrom, J.
(2019). Modern era Knowledge Spillovers in the Solar energy sector.
Grafström, J.
(2019). Modern era Knowledge Spillovers in the Solar energy sector.
Aldieri, L., Grafström, J., Sundström, K., & Vinci, C. P. (2020). Wind Power and Job Creation. Sustainability, 12(1), 45.
Grafström, J.,
& Lindman, Å. (2017). Invention, innovation and diffusion in the European
wind power sector. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114,
179-191.
Grafström, J.
(2018). International knowledge spillovers in the wind power industry: evidence
from the European Union. Economics of Innovation and New Technology,
27(3), 205-224.
Grafström, J., Hvalgren, N., & Korpi, M. (2018). No 309:
Förutsättningar för storskaligt infångande av koldioxid (No. 309). The Ratio Institute.